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The second of Drachman Institute’s 3-part series of transit-related talks took place Friday, August 15th at the Drachman Center, 44 N. Stone Ave., Tucson.  The event started with definitions of  what TOD (Transit Oriented Development) means and how to support density & diversity.   The streetcar is a start, but sustainability of that success has to be larger network with the right development.  In a related post, Jarrett Walker & Associates calls this economic zone  our network map for high frequency transit routes.  The challenge will be reasons to invest.  Kelly Iitzen talked about demographic survey analysis.  Laura Jensen explained GIS mapping of  base demographic regions, zoning areas, bus routes and an array of other data overlays.   Jacob Bintliff from the San Fransisco Firm,  BAE Urban Economics put it together with recommendations for strategic investment planning.

Tucson needs a resounding reason to invest in a vastly different paradigm.  Places like San Francisco don’t need convincing.  Yet, we have a high frequency transit network pattern that begins to speak about bus rapid transit, articulated buses and even light rail.  Getting there defines development choices.  The surveys show most of the sampled don’t want to lose their cars, but 80% of them would like options factored in; renters even more so.  That 80% comes from lower income groups,  BAE, recommends density and affordability as a determining market.  To attract that, building costs could range from a $50K studio to $190K flat.  Tucson can support that with incentives and density bonuses and in a manner respectful to adjacent neighborhoods.

We have incentive options in place to model from and if edge development is flexible and compatible along old neighborhoods, large boosts in home ownership become a supportive revenue balance.  Armory Park Del Sol is an example of quality home ownership infill attracted by the protective Armory Park Historic Preservation Zone (HPZ).  It boosted adjacent home values and is walking distance from the street car TOD.  Similar markets stand to gain attention around the University and Downtown with the right push. 

Tucson’s largest incentive district, the GIID is in the middle of a revision process as many historic properties are considered to be excluded amidst a range of other topics.  Core residents fear blanket commercial incentives encourage demolition of old homes, but know absence in home ownership does the same thing.  Thousands of old homes behind urbanizing edges are at risk with ratios of renter to homeowner continually falling below economic sustainability.   Paradoxically, smart planning & incentives that fear and use incentives to boost homeownership beginning with assuring a balance of edge preservation and enhancement where it works well.   Core homeownership is good market and a necessary common diversity denominator as it is in other university towns.  

Soon, we will see the introduction of smarter form based zoning overlays designed to encourage density and support these neighborhoods.  The GIID’s downtown core subdistrict, aka, the DowntownLINKs illustrates a methodology in certain areas.  Revisions to the GIID is scheduled for approval in early 2015.   For Tucson, this nexus of smarter planning at its core is where transit oriented development and sustainability sets the tone for the greater region.